edaEstudios de AdministraciónEstud. adm. (En línea)0717-06530719-0816Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Economía y Negocios. Departamento de Administración10.5354/0719-0816.2017.55389ArtículosDetección de burbujas en el precio de viviendas: evidencia para los países de la OECD entre 1970 y 2015Bubble detection in housing prices: Evidence for OECD countries between 1970 and 2015Quintana CarisMario1Universidad de Chile. ChileUniversidad de ChileUniversidad de ChileChilemquintan@fen.uchile.clJuly-Dec20172423050Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative CommonsResumen:
Utilizando una metodología econométrica de quiebre estructural propuesta por Homm y Breitung (2012) en series de precios nominales de casas desde 1970 hasta el segundo trimestre del 2015 se detecta la presencia de burbujas para 14 de las 18 economías avanzadas analizadas. Este resultado se encuentra acorde con lo obtenido por Engsted et al.(2015), que emplean un test de cointegración entre precios y rentas que a su vez admite la presencia de un componente explosivo que identifican como una burbuja en precios. Se concluye que lo obtenido es importante porque presenta al análisis de los precios nominales como un indicador temprano de la posible presencia de una burbuja en precios en el sector inmobiliario.
Abstract:
Using a structural-break econometric methodology, proposed by Homm and Breitung (2012), in nominal house price series since 1970 through the second quarter of 2015 we find price bubbles in 14 out of the 18 advanced economies under study. This result is consistent with the one obtained by Engsted et al. (2015), who uses a cointegration between price and rent that allows the presence of an explosive component that they identify as a price bubble. We conclude that our results are important because they put the nominal price analysis as an early indicator of the presence of house price bubbles.
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